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Atmosphere is like bathtub—filling up with CO2 – plants and trees not able to absorb all of the excess CO2 – like a drain stopped up Main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the US: Electricity 33% Transportation 28% Industry 22% Agriculture 8% Already there has been an average 1.5 o F increase over pre-industrial levels across the globe – more extreme at the poles On track for 4-10 o F increase by 2100 – would be disastrous – coldest annual average temperature will be warmer than ever before No longer business as usual for agriculture in Northeast: Hotter summers, warmer winters Changes in precipitation patterns Increasing extreme weather events More variability, more risk New pests Plant hardiness zones are moving 30 yards north per day Longer growing seasons – gained 10 days in Northeast since 1950s More extreme precipitation events – 71% increase in same period Longer frost-free period does not necessarily mean longer growing season if more flooding takes place Warmer winters in Northeast means increased pest pressures Better overwinter survival More generations per season Northward expansion of range Dramatic increase in risk of mega-drought in Southwest – 80% by the end of the century Examples of climate change impact on agriculture: Cork and olive trees dramatically affected by hotter weather in Mediterranean area Avocado production off by 40% in California Already 10% decrease in grain production worldwide Half of grape production in California will be negatively affected by mid-century Lobster fisheries moving north Coffee in trouble worldwide – production down 305 in Costa Rica Most of major food and beverage companies understand severity of problem – consultants’ advice: Encourage climate smart farming Carry out supply chain risk assessment Develop and use technology for conservation Invest in suppliers Look at alternative ingredients Need to mitigate emission of greenhouse gases by: Nutrient management Reduced tillage, cover crops Energy conservation Waste to heat and power Renewable energy Willows, switch grass, etc